Jennifer Eggert, London
When Benjamin Netanyahu appointed Tzipi Livni as Justice Minister and Chief Negotiator, hopes were raised amongst Western observers that Livni’s appointment constituted a window of opportunity for the resumption of Arab-Israeli negotiations. However, even with one of Israel’s leading advocates of the two-state solution in power, this seems unlikely for three key reasons.
First, Netanyahu has never been supportive of a bilateral peace process. He opposed the Oslo Accords and only endorsed the notion of an independent Palestinian state in 2009. Peace negotiations remained frozen throughout his term. His list of candidates at the elections was dominated by hard-line settlement supporters – a clear indicator that Netanyahu has not suddenly turned into a dove.
Second, even if Netanyahu was intrinsically interested in reviving the deadlocked peace process, now would not be the right time to do so. After his narrow victory in the elections Netanyahu depends on the ultra-nationalists’ and ultra-orthodoxs’ support to form a strong coalition. It is highly unlikely he will antagonise them by bringing up the controversial topic of peace negotiations. Furthermore, the majority of the Jewish-Israeli population are much more concerned by economic issues, as the centrists’ gaining ground in the recent elections (as well as recent social protests) have shown. It has often been claimed that in Israel, security trumps all other issues. However, with the decline of Palestinian violence, Palestinians are not seen as a major threat any more. Netanyahu has considerably contributed to this view by emphasising the Iranian threat.
Finally, it is vital to also consider the international context. Rather than insisting on negotiations, the Palestinian leadership focuses on international recognition. Both the US and EU have expressed their concerns vis-à-vis the Israeli settlement policy. However, with the uncertainty caused by the Arab revolutions, they will be wary of adding yet another factor of instability by questioning the status quo in Israel/Palestine.
Netanyahu’s tactical move to invite moderate figures into his government is not new. He used it throughout his last term to appease both Israeli and international critics. Centrist Livni represents a segment of society that Likud has difficulties to reach. Offering Livni the role of chief negotiatior was the price Netanyahu had to pay for her joining his forces – but given the current domestic and international context, it is unlikely her appointment will yield any major changes in the deadlocked conflict situation.
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